Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 60.396055 70.555941 81.592713 94.433746 108.922590 124.723258 143.215579
2024-12-15 45.628898 59.436251 75.782560 96.389398 121.486168 150.862811 187.637302
2024-12-22 33.490458 47.770771 65.911608 90.288994 121.787449 160.681614 211.849187
2024-12-29 28.315964 43.482767 63.868627 92.667260 131.603995 181.652767 249.954435
2025-01-05 23.454427 38.612404 60.085541 91.836834 136.546632 196.089415 279.984060
2025-01-12 21.486779 37.476216 61.125100 97.405352 150.169507 222.418879 326.768011
2025-01-19 17.253394 32.177737 55.370031 92.459584 148.373994 227.310574 344.427833
2025-01-26 15.594154 30.704553 55.134047 95.503459 158.087225 248.537972 385.517687
2025-02-02 14.794866 30.534729 56.862451 101.595505 172.590347 277.220825 438.378319
2025-02-09 13.475177 29.235515 56.557509 104.341019 182.029607 298.828590 481.838477
2025-02-16 12.130484 27.677270 55.609057 105.871858 189.540207 317.779095 522.053329
2025-02-23 10.725561 25.780313 53.835992 105.799830 194.366541 332.739848 556.772491
2025-03-02 9.433555 24.070264 52.502530 106.893186 202.052845 353.888754 604.117828
2025-03-09 8.334489 22.598400 51.487257 108.551667 210.984248 377.803448 657.473756
2025-03-16 6.521332 19.155717 46.169735 101.764273 204.845708 377.072253 672.007458
2025-03-23 5.881224 18.303950 45.911658 104.387672 215.277550 403.837168 731.456677
2025-03-30 5.034236 16.748429 43.952656 103.469802 219.193372 419.828612 774.014727
2025-04-06 4.822857 16.804898 45.483754 109.619239 236.436113 459.168967 856.532343
2025-04-13 3.857673 14.563057 41.543278 104.157770 231.495253 459.998026 874.807839
2025-04-20 3.557817 14.163318 41.808813 107.519571 243.573518 491.063586 945.292028
2025-04-27 3.465289 14.377240 43.571366 114.242807 262.574553 535.186072 1039.661146
2025-05-04 3.186564 13.936498 43.657928 117.270654 274.414731 566.917210 1113.725842
2025-05-11 2.874196 13.305459 43.173938 118.958366 283.633042 594.237004 1181.029778